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Impact of Chinese Export Tariffs on United States Farm Products

I. Executive Summary

This report analyzes the likely effects of export tariffs imposed by China on farm products originating from the United States. The findings indicate that several key agricultural commodities, most notably soybeans, pork, and dairy products, are expected to experience the most significant negative impacts due to a combination of high export values to China and the imposition of substantial tariff rates. The overall effect of these tariffs is anticipated to be a considerable decline in the volume and value of US agricultural exports to China, posing significant challenges for American farmers and the broader agricultural sector.

II. US Agricultural Exports to China: An Overview

The agricultural trade relationship between the United States and China has historically been of great significance to both nations. China has frequently been among the top destinations for agricultural exports from the United States, often alternating in the leading position with Canada.¹ This consistent high ranking underscores the economic importance of the Chinese market for American agricultural producers. However, this trade relationship has not been without its periods of instability, particularly during times of heightened trade tensions between the two countries.¹ These fluctuations demonstrate that geopolitical factors and trade policies wield considerable influence over the flow of agricultural goods between the US and China. The historical data reveals a deep interdependence, where US agriculture has come to rely on the substantial demand from the Chinese market. Consequently, any imposition of tariffs by China has the potential to generate severe repercussions for the US agricultural sector. The fact that China has historically vied with Canada for the top export destination spot further emphasizes its crucial role in the overall landscape of American agricultural exports.

In 2024, the total value of agricultural exports from the United States reached $191 billion, representing a modest increase from the $190 billion recorded in 2023, but still below the record high of $213 billion achieved in 2022.² Within this overall export figure, bulk agricultural exports experienced a notable surge in volume, increasing by 22% compared to the previous year. This marked the most substantial annual rise in bulk export volume in a decade.² Despite this significant increase in the quantity of bulk commodities shipped, the total revenue generated from these exports declined by 5% from 2023. This apparent contradiction can be attributed to a sharp decrease of over 20% in average export prices during the same period.² The leading US agricultural exports by value in 2024 included key commodities such as grains and feeds, soybeans, livestock products, tree nuts, fruits, vegetables, and consumer-oriented food products.⁵ Within these broader categories, the top ten individual exports were soybeans, corn, beef and beef products, tree nuts, pork and pork products, dairy products, soybean meal, food preparations, wheat, and poultry meat and products.⁵ While China remained a major trading partner for the United States in 2024, its share as a destination for US bulk exports experienced a decline.² Notably, Canada emerged as the top destination for US farm goods in 2024, highlighting a shift in the primary direction of American agricultural exports.² The total value of US agricultural exports to China in 2024 has been reported at $24.7 billion.⁷ However, forecasts for the fiscal year 2025 project a slightly lower value of $23.3 billion, which represents a decrease from earlier projections made in August 2024.⁴ This discrepancy in reported values underscores the dynamic nature of agricultural trade and the potential influence of evolving trade policies. The increase in export volume coupled with a decrease in revenue suggests that while the US may be exporting more agricultural products, it is doing so at lower prices, potentially impacting overall profitability. The shift in the top export destination from China to Canada signifies a significant alteration in the landscape of US agricultural trade, possibly influenced by factors such as tariffs and changing global demand.

Among the various agricultural commodities exported from the United States to China, soybeans consistently held the position of the top export by value in 2024, reaching $12.8 billion.¹⁰ This substantial figure underscores the significant reliance of US soybean producers on the Chinese market. Following soybeans, other agricultural products with considerable export values to China in 2024 included beef and beef products at $1.58 billion, cotton at $1.48 billion, coarse grains (excluding corn) at $1.26 billion, and pork and pork products at $1.11 billion.¹⁰ In contrast to these high-value exports, the value of corn exports from the US to China was notably lower in 2024, amounting to $327.9 million.¹² This lower figure, when compared to the export values of corn to other major destinations such as Mexico and Japan, might indicate pre-existing trade dynamics or a relatively lower demand for US corn in the Chinese market. Dairy products, with whey and lactose being key components, also constitute a significant category of agricultural exports from the US to China.¹⁰ The consistent high value of exports in commodities like soybeans, beef, cotton, and pork emphasizes the specific sectors within US agriculture that face the greatest potential risks due to tariffs imposed by China. The comparatively lower value of corn exports might imply a different degree of impact from tariffs on this particular grain.

An analysis of trade trends reveals that the overall volume of trade between the United States and China experienced a substantial decline of 32.8% in the first quarter of 2024 when compared to the same period in 2023.¹⁴ This significant reduction suggests a cooling of trade relations and potentially reflects the initial impacts of trade tensions or the anticipation of impending tariffs. Specifically, soybean exports to China witnessed a marked decrease in the first quarter of 2024, with a 57.4% drop in value.¹⁴ Similarly, corn exports to China also experienced a considerable decline in value during the same period, falling by 76.9%.¹⁴Furthermore, exports of meat products from the US to China decreased by 26.3% in the first quarter of 2024.¹⁴ These trends in the early part of 2024 indicate that trade in key agricultural products between the US and China was already being significantly affected, even before the major tariff escalations that occurred later in the year. The sharp percentage decreases across several major agricultural categories highlight a pre-existing sensitivity to the trade relationship between the two nations.

III. China’s Imposed Tariffs on US Agricultural Products

The year 2025 witnessed a rapid escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China, marked by a series of tariff implementations and retaliatory measures. On March 4, China announced its initial round of retaliatory tariffs targeting agricultural products from the United States. This action was taken in response to tariffs previously imposed by the US on goods originating from China.⁸ The tariff schedule included a 15% duty on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, while a 10% tariff was applied to a broader range of commodities such as sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products.⁸ This initial move targeted specific agricultural sectors with varying tariff rates.

The trade conflict intensified on April 4 when China announced a further 34% tariff on all goods imported from the United States, set to take effect on April 10.¹⁵ This significant escalation was a direct response to the US imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods.¹⁵ The imposition of this across-the-board tariff meant that all US products, including agricultural commodities, would be subject to an additional 34% duty, layered on top of any existing tariffs. The tit-for-tat nature of these actions became increasingly apparent.

In a further escalation, on April 9, the United States increased its reciprocal tariff on China to 84%.¹⁵ This substantial rise in the US tariff rate prompted a swift response from China. On April 10, China matched the US increase by raising its retaliatory tariff on US goods to 84%.¹⁵ The reciprocal nature of the tariffs continued to be a defining characteristic of the trade dispute.

The tariff battle reached a new peak on April 11 when China announced yet another increase, raising its tariffs on US imports to 125%.²⁶ This move mirrored a corresponding increase by the US, which had also raised its tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, later clarified by the US as effectively 145% when including other levies.²⁶The final tariff rates reached levels exceeding 100% for many products, suggesting a near cessation of trade in those commodities. Notably, the Chinese government indicated that this might be the final tariff increase, citing concerns about the commercial viability of US exports to China under such high duties.²⁶

The cumulative effect of these escalating tariffs has resulted in extremely high rates for key US agricultural products exported to China. Soybeans, which initially faced a 10% tariff in March, are now subject to a cumulative rate that has reached over 100%, with the American Soybean Association estimating total import costs in China to be near 115%.²⁹ Corn, which started with a 15% tariff in March, also faces a cumulative rate exceeding 100%.⁸ Similarly, pork, initially tariffed at 10% in March, now confronts a cumulative rate of over 100%, with the US Meat Export Federation suggesting a potential total import tax of 131%.⁸ Beef, which began with a 10% tariff, also has a cumulative rate exceeding 100%, although the US Meat Export Federation reported a potential 56% tariff in early April before the final escalations.⁸ Dairy products, including whey and lactose, which were initially subject to a 10% tariff in March, now face cumulative rates over 100%, although some reports indicated a 44% rate in early April.⁸ Cotton, which had an initial tariff of 15% in March, is also now subject to a cumulative rate exceeding 100%.⁸

Initially, China provided some exemptions for goods that were already in transit when the tariffs were first announced.⁸ However, subsequent announcements from the Chinese government indicated that the newly imposed tariffs would not be eligible for any exemptions or relief.¹⁵ This removal of exemptions suggests a firm stance from China, aiming to maximize the impact of the tariffs on US exports.

IV. Impact Analysis by Farm Product

Soybeans, as the top agricultural export from the United States to China in 2024 with a value of $12.8 billion ¹¹, are particularly vulnerable to the imposed tariffs. China’s role as a major importer, consuming a significant portion of the total US soybean exports ¹¹, amplifies this vulnerability. With cumulative tariff rates now exceeding 100% ²⁹, a substantial decrease in both the volume and value of soybean exports to China is anticipated.¹¹ The US market share in China has already been on a decline, with Brazil increasingly becoming the dominant supplier of soybeans to the Chinese market.¹¹ This existing trend is likely to be accelerated by the prohibitive tariffs. Furthermore, the domestic market in the US is not large enough to absorb the significant quantities of soybeans previously exported to China ¹¹, suggesting that US soybean farmers will likely face substantial financial losses, potentially amounting to billions of dollars annually.⁴⁰

While China was not a primary destination for US corn exports in 2024, with a value of $327.9 million ¹², the imposition of cumulative tariff rates exceeding 100% ⁸ will likely lead to a further reduction in the already limited export volume.¹⁴ Although the direct impact on overall US corn exports might be less severe compared to soybeans, the high tariffs will likely eliminate most, if not all, US corn exports to China. Additionally, the tariffs on corn, a key component of animal feed, could indirectly impact feed costs for other agricultural sectors in China ⁵⁴, potentially affecting the demand for other US agricultural products used in feed.

Pork exports from the US to China in 2024 were valued at $1.11 billion, and beef exports reached $1.58 billion.¹⁰ China also represents a significant market for US pork variety meats.²⁴ With cumulative tariff rates for both pork and beef now exceeding 100% ⁸, a substantial decline in exports is anticipated.²⁴ The impact on pork variety meats is expected to be particularly significant given China’s role as a major buyer.²⁴ US beef exports to China already faced certain market access challenges, and the increased tariffs will likely further restrict these exports.²⁴

Dairy exports from the US to China in 2024 were valued at $584 million, with whey and lactose being key components.¹⁰ China is a significant importer of these US dairy products.⁵⁵ The cumulative tariff rates on dairy products have also reached over 100% ⁸, leading to expectations of significant disruption to US dairy exports to China.⁵⁴ This situation could potentially lead to a collapse in prices for whey and lactose in the US market.⁵⁵ Furthermore, US dairy producers will likely face increased competition from suppliers in New Zealand and the European Union in the Chinese market, as these regions may have more favorable trade agreements.⁵⁵

Other key agricultural exports from the US to China, including cotton, wheat, and sorghum, which now face cumulative tariffs exceeding 100%, are also expected to experience reduced demand.⁸ China has already lowered its import forecast for cotton, indicating an anticipated decrease in demand.⁶⁴ While US wheat exports to China were relatively lower in volume, and the impact might be less severe than for other commodities, sorghum producers who relied on the Chinese market will likely be negatively affected as China seeks alternative suppliers.⁸ Similarly, US exports of fruits and vegetables to China, also subject to tariffs exceeding 100%, will likely decline, with the extent of the impact depending on the specific products and their availability from other sources.¹

V. Overall Economic Implications for the US Agricultural Sector

The imposition of these high tariffs by China is expected to have significant negative consequences for the agricultural sector in the United States. A primary impact will be a substantial reduction in the revenue generated from agricultural exports to China.² This decline in export earnings will directly affect the profitability of American farmers and the overall health of the agricultural economy.

Furthermore, China’s response to the trade dispute may involve an increasing reliance on agricultural imports from other countries, such as Brazil.¹¹ This potential shift in sourcing could lead to a long-term loss of market share for US agricultural producers in China, making it challenging to regain their previous position even if the tariffs are eventually removed.

The reduced demand for US agricultural products in China is also likely to create an oversupply situation in the domestic US market for certain commodities. This oversupply could exert downward pressure on the prices of affected goods, further diminishing the profitability of US agriculture.²⁴ Consequently, the income of US farmers is expected to be negatively impacted by both lower export revenue and potentially depressed commodity prices.¹¹

The repercussions of decreased agricultural exports will likely extend beyond the farm sector, affecting related industries such as transportation, agricultural processing, and suppliers of agricultural inputs.¹ Reduced demand for agricultural products will create a ripple effect throughout the entire supply chain.

Historical parallels can be drawn to the trade war that occurred in 2018-2019. The current situation could potentially have an impact that is similar to or even greater than that period, which resulted in significant financial losses for US agriculture.¹¹ The experience of the previous trade dispute serves as a stark reminder of the potential for substantial economic damage to the US agricultural sector. Furthermore, the trade tensions between the US and China could have broader negative impacts on the overall US economy due to reduced trade and the potential for further escalation of trade barriers.¹

Product Name	2024 Export Value to China (USD)	2024 Export Volume to China (Metric Tons)	Estimated Cumulative Tariff Rate (%)
Soybeans	$12.8 Billion	27.21 Million	>100%
Beef & Beef Products	$1.58 Billion	179,464	>100%
Cotton	$1.48 Billion	761,173	>100%
Coarse Grains (excl. corn)	$1.26 Billion	4.77 Million	>100%
Pork & Pork Products	$1.11 Billion	467,228	>100%
Dairy Products	$584 Million	385,485	>100%
Corn	$327.9 Million	Data not readily available	>100%

VI. Potential Mitigation Strategies and Market Adjustments

In response to the challenges posed by the Chinese tariffs, US agricultural producers may need to explore various mitigation strategies and market adjustments. One key approach involves actively seeking and expanding export opportunities in alternative markets such as Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and Southeast Asia.¹ Diversifying export destinations can help reduce the overall reliance on the Chinese market and mitigate the impact of tariffs imposed by a single trading partner.

Farmers might also consider adjusting their production patterns by shifting towards commodities that are less affected by the tariffs or that have stronger demand in domestic markets.⁷² This could involve re-evaluating planting decisions and exploring alternative crops or livestock production.

Another potential strategy involves increasing the focus on developing value-added agricultural products.¹These processed or differentiated products might face different tariff structures compared to bulk commodities and could potentially command higher prices in alternative export markets or domestically.

Given the potential for significant economic fallout, the US government may need to consider implementing support programs to assist farmers in navigating the challenges posed by the tariffs, similar to the aid provided during previous trade disputes.⁶⁵ Such programs could provide financial assistance, facilitate market development efforts, or support research and innovation in the agricultural sector.

In the long term, efforts to de-escalate trade tensions and negotiate new trade agreements with China will be crucial for restoring stability and predictability to US agricultural exports.²² Resolving the trade dispute through diplomatic channels offers the most sustainable path towards ensuring market access for US agricultural products in China.

Finally, efforts to promote and increase domestic consumption of certain agricultural products could help to offset some of the reduced demand resulting from decreased exports.¹¹ This could involve initiatives to encourage local food consumption, develop new domestic markets, or expand existing ones.

VII. Conclusion

The analysis indicates that US farm products, particularly soybeans, pork, and dairy, are likely to be most significantly impacted by the export tariffs imposed by China. These commodities, which represent substantial export values to the Chinese market, now face cumulative tariff rates exceeding 100%, creating a major barrier to trade. The overall anticipated impact on US agricultural exports to China is a substantial decline in both volume and value, disrupting established trade patterns and posing significant economic challenges for American farmers and related industries. The future of US agricultural trade with China under the current tariff regime is uncertain, but it is likely to involve a significant restructuring of trade relationships and a need for US producers to actively pursue alternative markets and strategies to ensure their long-term sustainability.

Sources used to create this report

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Impact of Chinese Export Tariffs on United States Farm Products