runthefarm

Author: admin

  • I asked Grok 3 what was the real reason for high egg prices.

    The high egg prices in 2025 stem from a combination of factors, with the primary driver being the ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu, particularly the H5N1 strain. This outbreak, which began in early 2022, has become the largest in U.S. history, affecting over 166 million birds by February 2025, including approximately 129.7 million egg-laying hens. When bird flu is detected, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) policy mandates the culling of entire flocks to prevent further spread, drastically reducing egg supply. For example, in December 2024 alone, 13.2 million hens were lost, and January 2025 saw even higher losses. Since it takes about six months to raise new hens to egg-laying age, supply recovery lags significantly behind these losses, tightening availability and pushing prices up.

    Beyond bird flu, other factors amplify the issue. Inflation has increased costs for feed, fuel, labor, and transportation, which are passed on to consumers. A shortage of truck drivers, a persistent problem worsened by retirements, has driven up shipping costs, further straining the supply chain. Additionally, laws in states like California, Colorado, and eight others mandating cage-free eggs—fully in effect by 2025 in some regions—have compounded the problem. Cage-free hens, which make up about a third of U.S. egg layers, accounted for nearly 60% of bird flu cases in 2024 due to their greater exposure to wild birds carrying the virus. This has disproportionately reduced cage-free egg supply, and with fewer producers able to meet these standards quickly, prices for these eggs have spiked even higher.

    Demand also plays a role. Despite rising prices, consumer appetite for eggs remains strong, partly due to their affordability as a protein source compared to meat, and seasonal peaks like holiday baking in late 2024 exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance. The average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs hit $4.95 in January 2025, up from $2.52 a year earlier, with some regions seeing prices as high as $8 or $9. The USDA predicts a further 20% increase throughout 2025, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.

    Some critics, including advocacy groups and posts on X, suggest corporate profiteering or price gouging by major egg producers like Cal-Maine Foods, which control much of the market, might inflate prices beyond what supply disruptions justify. They argue that record profits amid the crisis point to companies leveraging the situation rather than just responding to it. However, no definitive evidence of widespread collusion has emerged, and the scale of flock losses aligns with significant supply reduction as a core cause.

    In short, the “real” reason is a perfect storm: bird flu decimating flocks, logistical and regulatory challenges slowing recovery, steady demand, and broader economic pressures—all converging to drive egg prices to record levels. Whether corporate behavior exaggerates this remains debated, but the supply shock from HPAI is the undeniable foundation. Prices may ease if bird flu subsides and flocks rebuild, but that’s unlikely before mid-to-late 2025 at the earliest.

    From Grok 3

  • News: What is the current situation for the bird flu in the US and is the hope for containment

    Based on the information available, here’s a summary of the current bird flu situation in the US:

    • Spread:
      • The H5N1 bird flu virus is widespread in wild birds across the US.1
      • It has also been detected in commercial poultry and backyard flocks, leading to significant culling efforts.2
      • Notably, it has spread to dairy cows in numerous states.3
      • There are also detections in other mammals.4
    • Human Cases:
      • There have been confirmed human cases, primarily among individuals with close contact with infected animals, such as poultry and dairy farm workers.5
      • There has been a confirmed death of a person in Louisiana.6
      • While the current public health risk is considered low, health officials are closely monitoring the situation.7
    • Containment Efforts:
      • Efforts are focused on monitoring the spread of the virus in both animal and human populations.8
      • Biosecurity measures are being emphasized for poultry and dairy farms to prevent further spread.9
      • Public health agencies are conducting surveillance and providing guidance to those at higher risk of exposure.10
      • The CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for H5 bird flu activity in people.11
    • Key Concerns:
      • The potential for the virus to mutate and become more easily transmissible between humans is a major concern.12
      • The spread to dairy cows has added a new dimension to the outbreak.
      • The fact that the virus has been found in many different mammal species is also a large concern.13
    • Public Risk:
      • The CDC maintains that the current risk to the general public remains low.14
      • However, it’s crucial to follow safety guidelines, such as avoiding contact with sick or dead animals and ensuring proper food handling.15

    In essence, while the bird flu is a serious concern, particularly for those working with animals, public health agencies are actively working to monitor and contain the situation.16

    https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/data-map-wild-birds.html

    https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks#:~:text=APHIS%20confirmed%20highly%20pathogenic%20avian,States%20on%20February%208%2C%202022.

    From Gemini

  • How will the closing of USAID affect US farmers.

    The closure of USAID could have several potential effects on US farmers:

    • Reduced demand for US agricultural products: USAID is a major purchaser of US agricultural products for food aid programs. The closure of the agency could lead to a decrease in demand for these products, potentially lowering prices and reducing income for US farmers.
    • Loss of export markets: USAID programs often help to develop agricultural markets in developing countries. The closure of the agency could lead to a loss of these export markets for US farmers.
    • Decreased access to technology and innovation: USAID funds research and development programs that benefit US farmers by improving crop yields, developing new varieties, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices. The closure of the agency could lead to a decrease in funding for these programs, potentially slowing down innovation in the agricultural sector.
    • Increased competition from foreign producers: USAID programs often help developing countries to increase their agricultural production. The closure of the agency could lead to increased competition from these countries in the global agricultural market, potentially lowering prices for US farmers.

    Overall, the closure of USAID could have a negative impact on US farmers by reducing demand for their products, limiting export opportunities, slowing down innovation, and increasing competition from foreign producers. However, the extent of the impact would depend on several factors, such as the size of the cuts to USAID funding, the specific programs that are affected, and the overall state of the global agricultural market. Via Gemini AI

  • Farm to Table how to win the business and grow your farm revenue.

    Here are some ways farmers can profit by working with farm-to-table restaurants:

    1. Direct Sales and Premium Pricing

    • Cut out the middleman: Farmers can sell directly to restaurants, eliminating distributors and wholesalers.1 This allows them to capture a larger portion of the final sale price.
    • Premium prices for quality: Farm-to-table restaurants often prioritize high-quality, fresh, and unique produce.2Farmers who can provide this can command higher prices than those selling to commodity markets.
    • Highlighting unique products: Farmers can specialize in heirloom varieties, organic produce, or other niche products that appeal to farm-to-table restaurants seeking distinctive ingredients.

    2. Building Relationships and Collaboration

    • Long-term partnerships: Developing strong relationships with chefs and restaurant owners can lead to consistent demand and long-term contracts, providing farmers with stable income.
    • Collaborative marketing: Farmers and restaurants can cross-promote each other, increasing visibility and attracting customers who value local sourcing.3 This can include farm visits, joint events, and featuring the farm’s name on the menu.
    • Menu input: Farmers can work with chefs to plan menus around seasonal availability, ensuring their products are utilized and reducing waste.4

    3. Value-Added Products and Diversification

    • Processing and packaging: Farmers can add value to their products by processing them (e.g., jams, sauces, pickles) or packaging them for restaurant use (e.g., pre-cut vegetables).5
    • Agritourism: Some farms can host events or offer tours, attracting customers who are interested in learning about food production and supporting local agriculture.6
    • Growing specialty items: Farmers can cater to the specific needs of farm-to-table restaurants by growing unique ingredients that may be difficult to source elsewhere.

    4. Community and Sustainability

    • Local focus: Farm-to-table restaurants often emphasize community and sustainability.7 Farmers who align with these values can attract both restaurants and consumers who are willing to pay a premium for locally sourced, ethically produced food.8
    • Reduced transportation costs: Selling locally can reduce transportation costs and the environmental impact associated with long-distance shipping.9

    Important Considerations:

    • Meeting demand: Farmers need to be able to consistently meet the quantity and quality demands of restaurants.10
    • Logistics and delivery: Efficient delivery systems are crucial for ensuring produce arrives fresh and on time.11
    • Pricing and contracts: Clear pricing agreements and contracts are essential for establishing fair and sustainable partnerships.
    • Marketing and communication: Farmers need to effectively communicate their story and the value of their products to restaurants and consumers.12

    By focusing on quality, building relationships, and diversifying their offerings, farmers can successfully partner with farm-to-table restaurants and create profitable opportunities.

  • What is the MAHA movement and how will it effect farming   from Gemini AI research.

    The “Maha” movement, short for “Make America Healthy Again,” is a loosely connected movement with roots in wellness culture that has become increasingly aligned with some political factions. It’s associated with figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and it promotes a range of ideas about health, the environment, and government regulation.

    Key Ideas of the Maha Movement:

    • Focus on “Natural” Health: The movement emphasizes natural remedies, alternative therapies, and skepticism towards conventional medicine and pharmaceuticals.
    • Environmental Concerns: Maha advocates are often concerned about environmental toxins, pesticides, and the impact of industrial agriculture on health.
    • Distrust of Institutions: There’s a strong element of distrust towards government agencies, regulatory bodies, and established scientific consensus.
    • Emphasis on Individual Choice: The movement often prioritizes individual liberties and the right to make personal health choices, even if they go against mainstream medical advice.

    How Maha Could Affect Farming:

    The Maha movement’s ideas have the potential to significantly impact farming practices in the US:

    • Pesticide Restrictions: Maha advocates often call for stricter regulations on pesticides, including widely used ones like glyphosate. This could lead to changes in pest management strategies for farmers.
    • Support for Regenerative Agriculture: The movement promotes regenerative agriculture practices, which focus on soil health, biodiversity, and reducing chemical inputs. This could encourage farmers to adopt new farming methods.
    • Emphasis on Local and “Natural” Foods: Maha’s focus on “natural” and unprocessed foods could increase demand for locally grown, organic, and minimally processed products.
    • Potential Challenges: Some Maha ideas, like banning certain agricultural technologies or restricting crop subsidies, could create challenges for farmers in terms of production costs and market access.

    Attribution for Thoughts:

    My understanding of the Maha movement and its potential effects on farming comes from a combination of sources, including:

    • News Articles and Reports: I’ve analyzed news articles and reports that discuss the Maha movement, its key figures, and its policy proposals.
    • Academic Research: I’ve accessed academic studies and articles that examine the intersection of wellness culture, environmentalism, and political movements.
    • Statements from Maha Advocates: I’ve considered statements and writings from key figures associated with the Maha movement to understand their perspectives and goals.

    Important Note:

    It’s crucial to recognize that the Maha movement is diverse, and not all individuals associated with it hold the same views. Some of the ideas promoted by the movement have strong scientific backing, while others are more controversial or lack sufficient evidence. It’s essential to critically evaluate information and consider multiple perspectives when assessing the potential impact of the Maha movement on farming and other areas.

  • The biggest expenses for local farmers in the USA in 2025:

    It’s tricky to give a definitive “biggest expenses” list that applies to all local farmers in the USA, as it varies wildly by farm type, size, and location. However, based on my knowledge and some research, here are some major expense categories, with sources:

    1. Feed: This is a huge one, especially for livestock farmers (dairy, beef, poultry, etc.). Feed costs fluctuate a lot based on grain prices, weather, and transportation. * Source: USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) – “Composition of production expenses varies by farm commodity specialization” https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=78283

    2. Labor: Finding reliable farm labor is tough, and costs are rising. This includes hired workers and family members who contribute. * Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) – “U.S. Farm Production Expenditures, 2023” https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Highlights/2024/2023_FarmExpenditures_Highlights.pdf

    3. Fertilizer, Lime, Soil Conditioners: Essential for crops, but prices are volatile. Farmers need to carefully manage use to optimize yields and control costs. * Source: USDA NASS – “U.S. Farm Production Expenditures, 2023” https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Highlights/2024/2023_FarmExpenditures_Highlights.pdf

    4. Rent and Lease Expenses: Many farmers rent land, and these costs can be substantial, varying by location, land quality, and demand. * Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln CropWatch – “2023 Farm Production Expenditures Down 1%” https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2024/2023-farm-production-expenditures-down-1/

    5. Fuel: Powers tractors, machinery, and transportation. Fluctuations in fuel prices have a major impact on farm profitability. * Source: USDA ERS – “Composition of production expenses varies by farm commodity specialization” https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=78283

    6. Seed, Plants, Other Inputs: Costs of high-quality seeds, plants, pesticides, herbicides, etc., can be significant, especially for specialty crops. * Source: Iowa State University Center for Agricultural Law and Taxation – “Deducting Farm Expenses: An Overview” https://www.calt.iastate.edu/article/deducting-farm-expenses-overview

    7. Repairs, Supplies, Maintenance: Farm equipment and infrastructure require regular upkeep, which can be costly. This includes tools, fencing, packaging, etc. * Source: IRS Publication 225 (2024), Farmer’s Tax Guide https://www.irs.gov/publications/p225

    8. Interest Expenses: Many farmers use loans, and interest payments are a significant expense, especially with rising interest rates. * Source: USDA NASS – “U.S. Farm Production Expenditures, 2023” https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Highlights/2024/2023_FarmExpenditures_Highlights.pdf

    9. Property Taxes: Farmers pay taxes on land and buildings, which can be substantial, especially in areas with high property values. * Source: IRS Publication 225 (2024), Farmer’s Tax Guide https://www.irs.gov/publications/p225

    10. Health Insurance: Healthcare costs are a major concern, as many farmers lack employer-sponsored insurance.

    Important Notes:

    • This is NOT an exhaustive list, and the order of importance varies by farm type.
    • These expenses are interconnected. For example, fuel costs impact transportation, fertilizer production, etc.
    • Farmers are constantly trying to manage these costs, often through technology, efficiency improvements, and diversification.

    I encourage you to explore the linked resources for more in-depth information and data on farm expenses.

  • Farm-Related Searches This Week: Jan 31

    Farm-Related Searches This Week:

    • Bird Flu (H5N9): This is a major concern right now, with outbreaks in poultry and even a human case reported. Searches related to bird flu in chickens, turkeys, and dairy cows are likely high.
    • Egg Prices: With egg prices soaring, people are definitely searching for news on the causes, predictions for the future, and ways to cope with the higher costs.
    • Prop 12: This California law regarding animal welfare and pork production is facing a Supreme Court challenge. Searches about the implications for pig farmers and consumers are probably trending.
    • Farm Technology: Ag-tech is always evolving. People are likely searching for news on new precision planting technology, methane-reducing cattle feed, and the use of AI in agriculture.
    • Climate Change Impacts: With extreme weather events happening more frequently, searches related to drought conditions, wildfires affecting farms, and the impact of climate change on crops and livestock are likely popular.

  • Challenges of family farming in 2025

    Family farms in 2025 face a unique set of challenges:

    • Economic Pressures:
      • High Input Costs: The cost of seeds, fertilizer, fuel, and other inputs has risen significantly, squeezing profit margins.
      • Low Commodity Prices: Prices for many agricultural commodities can fluctuate wildly, making it difficult for farmers to plan and ensure profitability.
      • Competition: Family farms often compete with large agribusinesses that have greater access to resources and economies of scale.
    • Labor Shortages:
      • Aging Workforce: The average age of farmers is increasing, and there’s a shortage of young people entering the profession.
      • Immigration Issues: Access to seasonal and year-round farmworkers can be challenging due to immigration policies and labor regulations.
    • Climate Change:
      • Extreme Weather: More frequent and intense droughts, floods, and heatwaves disrupt production and damage crops.
      • Soil Erosion: Climate change can accelerate soil erosion, reducing soil fertility and impacting long-term productivity.
    • Market Access:
      • Finding Buyers: Connecting with local markets, food co-ops, and direct-to-consumer channels can be challenging.
      • Food Safety Regulations: Meeting increasingly stringent food safety regulations can be costly and time-consuming.
    • Technological Advancements:
      • Automation: The increasing use of automation in agriculture can displace farmworkers and require significant investments.
      • Data Management: Farmers need to effectively manage and utilize data from various sources to make informed decisions.

    These challenges require innovative solutions, such as:

    • Diversification: Exploring alternative crops, livestock, or value-added products to increase income streams.
    • Community Supported Agriculture (CSA): Building direct relationships with consumers through CSAs and farmers’ markets.
    • Technology Adoption: Utilizing precision agriculture technologies to improve efficiency and resource use.
    • Policy Advocacy: Advocating for policies that support family farms, such as farm subsidies, crop insurance, and immigration reform.
    • Collaboration: Working together with other farmers, cooperatives, and local organizations to address shared challenges.

    By addressing these challenges, family farms can continue to play a vital role in feeding our communities and sustaining rural economies.

    Disclaimer: This information is for general knowledge and discussion purposes only.

    I hope this helps! Let me know if you’d like to explore any of these challenges in more detail.

  • Sustainable farming in 2025

    some thoughts on sustainable farm in 2025:

    Farming for the Future: Sustainability in 2025

    2025 finds us at a pivotal moment for agriculture. Climate change is a reality, and the demand for healthy, locally-sourced food continues to grow. Running a sustainable farm is no longer just a “nice-to-have” – it’s essential for the long-term health of our planet and our communities.

    What does sustainable farming look like in 2025?

    • Regenerative Practices: It’s about more than just avoiding harm. We’re focusing on rebuilding soil health through techniques like cover cropping, no-till farming, and integrated pest management.
    • Water Conservation: Every drop counts! Implementing efficient irrigation systems, collecting rainwater, and minimizing water waste are top priorities.
    • Biodiversity: Creating diverse ecosystems on the farm – from hedgerows and pollinator gardens to integrating livestock – benefits the entire farm and the surrounding environment.
    • Community Engagement: Building strong relationships with our local communities, whether it’s through farm-to-table programs, educational workshops, or agritourism, is crucial.
    • Technology Integration: From precision agriculture tools to renewable energy sources, technology is playing an increasingly important role in helping us farm more sustainably.

    Challenges and Opportunities

    The challenges are real: unpredictable weather patterns, market volatility, and the ever-present threat of pests and diseases. But the opportunities are immense. We have the chance to create a more resilient food system, connect with our communities, and steward the land for generations to come.

    Running a sustainable farm in 2025 requires dedication, innovation, and a long-term vision. But the rewards – a healthy planet, thriving communities, and delicious, nutritious food – make it all worthwhile.

    What are your thoughts on sustainable farming? Share your experiences and ideas in the comments below!

    Disclaimer: This is a fictional blog post. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency, 1 organization, or company.   

    1. www.nrahlf.org