The high egg prices in 2025 stem from a combination of factors, with the primary driver being the ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu, particularly the H5N1 strain. This outbreak, which began in early 2022, has become the largest in U.S. history, affecting over 166 million birds by February 2025, including approximately 129.7 million egg-laying hens. When bird flu is detected, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) policy mandates the culling of entire flocks to prevent further spread, drastically reducing egg supply. For example, in December 2024 alone, 13.2 million hens were lost, and January 2025 saw even higher losses. Since it takes about six months to raise new hens to egg-laying age, supply recovery lags significantly behind these losses, tightening availability and pushing prices up.
Beyond bird flu, other factors amplify the issue. Inflation has increased costs for feed, fuel, labor, and transportation, which are passed on to consumers. A shortage of truck drivers, a persistent problem worsened by retirements, has driven up shipping costs, further straining the supply chain. Additionally, laws in states like California, Colorado, and eight others mandating cage-free eggs—fully in effect by 2025 in some regions—have compounded the problem. Cage-free hens, which make up about a third of U.S. egg layers, accounted for nearly 60% of bird flu cases in 2024 due to their greater exposure to wild birds carrying the virus. This has disproportionately reduced cage-free egg supply, and with fewer producers able to meet these standards quickly, prices for these eggs have spiked even higher.
Demand also plays a role. Despite rising prices, consumer appetite for eggs remains strong, partly due to their affordability as a protein source compared to meat, and seasonal peaks like holiday baking in late 2024 exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance. The average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs hit $4.95 in January 2025, up from $2.52 a year earlier, with some regions seeing prices as high as $8 or $9. The USDA predicts a further 20% increase throughout 2025, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.
Some critics, including advocacy groups and posts on X, suggest corporate profiteering or price gouging by major egg producers like Cal-Maine Foods, which control much of the market, might inflate prices beyond what supply disruptions justify. They argue that record profits amid the crisis point to companies leveraging the situation rather than just responding to it. However, no definitive evidence of widespread collusion has emerged, and the scale of flock losses aligns with significant supply reduction as a core cause.
In short, the “real” reason is a perfect storm: bird flu decimating flocks, logistical and regulatory challenges slowing recovery, steady demand, and broader economic pressures—all converging to drive egg prices to record levels. Whether corporate behavior exaggerates this remains debated, but the supply shock from HPAI is the undeniable foundation. Prices may ease if bird flu subsides and flocks rebuild, but that’s unlikely before mid-to-late 2025 at the earliest.
From Grok 3